Frontier CEO Brief: Reflections from the 3rd World Energies Summit
This week, Frontier hosted the 3rd Edition of the World Energies Summit, bringing together global leaders and decision-makers shaping the future of the upstream industry. It was a huge personal honour to introduce His Excellency Karim Badawi, Minister of Petroleum and Mineral Resources, Egypt, whose insightful remarks and clarion call to collaborate to unlock the world's hydrocarbon resources faster in Egypt-Mediterranean and the world set the tone for an exceptional series of discussions. I came away with a number of key reflections and perspectives that I’d like to share with you all.
We’re already looking ahead to the next gathering - the 4th Edition of the World Energies Summit | The World’s Premier Global Upstream Conference | 29th - 30th September 2026. I look forward to welcoming you all once again to the world’s premier global upstream conference, where together we continue advancing dialogue, innovation, and opportunity across the energy sector in that special Frontier way.
The Global Context
This is what I gathered about the global outlook. Global hydrocarbon demand will remain resilient, with consumption in 2050 projected to be roughly on par with today’s levels despite widespread expectations of “peak demand.” Renewables are largely meeting new energy demand rather than replacing existing fossil fuel consumption, meaning oil and gas will remain essential components of the global energy mix for decades to come, which I guess is no surprise. The thing to highlight is that, exploration activity continues to contract sharply - there are now 50% fewer active exploration companies worldwide, and annual wildcat drilling has fallen to around 500 wells, compared with approximately 2,600 in the 1980s. In my view, this is a stark reality check for energy security.
Capital Allocation & Financing
Capital allocation and financing remains a major constraint as we heard time and time again from our speakers, with traditional banks retreating from hydrocarbon lending under ESG-linked policies that drive up costs. However, this has created space for traders, private equity, and alternative financiers to step in, reshaping how new projects are funded. I can see a new playbook is being written here.
Regional Interest (not an exhaustive list!)
In the Asia Pacific region, Malaysia and Thailand stand out for their stability and investor-friendly fiscal terms, while Indonesia and Bangladesh offer significant scale but come with higher operational and political risks. In Africa, Angola’s pragmatic approach contrasts with Namibia’s evolving regulatory landscape, while Egypt and Mozambique are well-positioned to leverage their LNG infrastructure. In the Americas, Suriname is drawing interest, while Brazil’s prolific pre-salt continues to dominate regional production. Other frontier plays such as Papua New Guinea, Timor-Leste, and the Bay of Bengal remain active but require capital inflows and greater political clarity to progress.
Opportunities & Risks
Nations risk leaving substantial hydrocarbon resources stranded if they fail to establish pragmatic and stable fiscal regimes. Contractual stability, as seen in Asia’s long-standing PSC frameworks, often proves more effective in sustaining investment than shifting tax systems, such as those in the UK North Sea (great example of what not to do!). Geopolitical barriers - like the unresolved Thailand-Cambodia Overlapping Claims Area - continue to block access to potentially large reserves. In the current environment, limited financing and instability will increasingly determine which projects move forward and which remain stalled.
Strategic Considerations
Investors are actively searching for “the next Guyana” - scalable, world-class, multi-decade developments capable of delivering material growth. Gas monetisation is a strategic priority, particularly across Asia, where coal still dominates electricity generation. Governments must work hard on all aspects to attract exploration capital in an uncertain geopolitical landscape.
Tech & AI
Emerging technologies and AI solutions are evolving fast and revolutionising our upstream sector - transforming how we discover, evaluate, and develop resources. From seismic interpretation to reservoir modelling and drilling optimisation, AI enables faster, more accurate decisions that reduce risk and cost. In an era where energy security depends on efficiency and insight, these tools are becoming essential to unlocking new reserves and maintaining global competitiveness. Exciting times and the industry is leaning in!
What’s at Stake?
The short answer is, a lot it seems! Projected hydrocarbon discoveries to 2050 - around 320 billion barrels of oil equivalent (BBOE) - fall dramatically short of the roughly 1,700 BBOE required to meet anticipated global demand, satisfying only about 18% of future needs. Aging Middle Eastern fields face rising water cuts and higher production costs, while US unconventional production is expected to peak within five years, opening potential supply gaps. Without renewed exploration and investment today, resource scarcity will drive up prices, making the energy transition slower, costlier, and more disruptive.
We need more big Guyana-style discoveries. The question is, where will they come from and what is needed to find them?
A heartfelt thank you to everyone who made this year’s Summit such a success - to our highly valued Sponsors & Partners, delegates, partners, speakers, moderators, and participants for your invaluable contributions, insights, and engagement. The collaboration, energy, and optimism in the room truly reflected the spirit of this great industry.
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