Frontier CEO Brief: Navigating Uncertainty; Insights from AIEN NOC Conference in London
Attending the AIEN NOC Conference and Workshops in London as CEO of Frontier offered a rare opportunity to reflect on the evolving role of National Oil Companies (NOCs) at a time of profound change and uncertainty in the global energy industry. Hosted at the Institute of Directors, the event gathered senior figures from across the upstream landscape to discuss how NOCs can continue to deliver economic value, energy access, and energy security amid shifting markets, geopolitical pressures, and evolving investment priorities.
It was a privilege to return to the IoD to support Frontier Regional Leader and AIEN President, Shakwa Nyambe of SNC Incorporated, who opened the conference with clarity and conviction. His leadership set the tone for three days of practical insight and open discussion. The overarching message was clear: the world is changing fast, and NOCs must evolve with equal speed. In this era of complexity, collaboration, governance, and operational excellence have never been more critical.
Governance as a Strategic Advantage
A major theme that emerged throughout the sessions was that governance is no longer an administrative concern - it is a competitive strength. The workshop on dispute resolution and risk management highlighted how legal robustness and clear governance frameworks now define credibility in the global marketplace. Crafting effective dispute clauses, managing arbitration exposure, and enforcing decisions are strategic acts that reinforce investor confidence. The strongest NOCs are those that match commercial ambition with disciplined governance, ensuring continuity and trust even amid volatility.
Partnerships Built on Performance
The discussions on Joint Venture (JV) management underscored how partnership excellence remains central to NOC success. Non-operated ventures provide opportunities to build capability, transfer technology, and diversify portfolios - but only when structured effectively. The key takeaway was that well-governed JVs, with transparent decision-making and defined influence plans, deliver measurable results. Collaboration is not a soft skill; it is a core capability that determines both operational and reputational success.
Redefining the IOC–NOC Relationship
The panel on IOC/NOC negotiations reflected how today’s uncertainty is reshaping the relationship between state-owned and international partners. Negotiations now encompass more than commercial outcomes - they are exercises in balancing national expectations with market realities. The conversations reinforced that partnerships built on mutual respect and shared risk withstand turbulence. Those driven purely by transaction often falter. In an unpredictable world, clarity, communication, and trust are the currency of lasting success.
Gas Monetisation and Commercial Agility
Sessions on LNG and gas monetisation highlighted how strategic flexibility is becoming indispensable. As demand and pricing fluctuate, NOCs must approach gas projects with agility - adapting structures, timelines, and fiscal frameworks to maintain competitiveness. The most successful NOCs are those that think commercially, anticipate shifts, and align stakeholders around long-term value creation. It was a reminder that resilience is built not by reacting to change, but by preparing for it.
Professionalism and Integrity in Uncertain Times
Across multiple panels, the emphasis on professionalisation of State-Owned Enterprises stood out. The OECD’s session on governance frameworks offered practical insight into how independent oversight, transparent reporting, and clear ownership structures underpin credibility. In a time of geopolitical and financial instability, professional conduct is a differentiator. NOCs that maintain consistency, accountability, and integrity are better positioned to attract investment and forge meaningful international partnerships.
Capital Discipline and Competitive Focus
As global capital becomes more selective, NOCs are being called upon to step forward as stabilisers in the investment landscape. Yet the discussions made clear that growth for growth’s sake is no longer viable. The new imperative is disciplined, value-driven investment. Successful NOCs are focusing on strategic assets, cost efficiency, and operational excellence - making every dollar count.
Technology and Innovation as Enablers
The AI in Energy session was a powerful reminder that innovation is not a luxury but a necessity. Artificial intelligence and digital tools are transforming how companies operate and NOCs are no exception -optimising production, reducing downtime, and improving safety. Yet, the discussions stressed that technology alone is not enough; it must be paired with strong governance, data integrity, and human capability.
Defining the Future of NOCs
The closing discussions looked ahead with realism and ambition. The future NOC must be agile, disciplined, and globally engaged. It must continue to tread a fine line of securing national value while competing effectively in complex markets. The next decade will reward those that combine operational strength with strategic foresight - organisations capable of adapting without losing their sense of purpose.
What I took away most powerfully from London was a renewed appreciation for the resilience, adaptability, and leadership required of NOCs in this period of disruption and uncertainty. Their decisions today will determine not only national prosperity but global stability. The qualities that will define success are not size or heritage, but focus, integrity, and collaboration.
The future belongs to those who lead their NOCs with clarity, courage, and purpose.
Thank you to all AIEN speakers who this week shared their knowledge:
Olufunmilayo Abiola Adesanya – Nigerian Upstream Petroleum Regulatory Commission (NUPRC)
Carlos Bellorin – Welligence Energy Analytics
Willem Bloem – Bloem Consultants N.V.
Elisa Botero – Curtis, Mallet-Prevost, Colt & Mosle LLP
Ross Brown – Shell
Bill Cline – Cline Energy Advisors
Simon Collier – Hunton Andrews Kurth LLP
Andrew Derman – Holland & Knight LLP
Yeside Dipo-Salami – NNPC Limited
Bob George – Ulysses Petroleum Management
Chad Harkness – Geminus
David Juarez-Navarro – ExxonMobil
Chinedu Igwe – NNPC Limited
Marc Hammerson – Curtis, Mallet-Prevost, Colt & Mosle LLP
Stephen Highfield – Eni Energies et Services
Sarah Kazmi – Energy Resource Management
Bryan Kelly – CNOOC International
Magdalena Konig – AIQ /ADNOC Group
Tomas Lanardonne – Martinez de Hoz & Rueda (MHR)
Valerie Marcel – New Producers for Sustainable Energy
Alexis Martinez – Watson Farley & Williams
Charles Morrison – Hunton Andrews Kurth LLP
Norman Nadorff – Mayer Brown | University of Houston Law Center
Martin Negonga – NAMCOR NAMIBIA (National Petroleum Corporation of Namibia)
Shakwa Nyambe – SNC Incorporated | Association of International Energy Negotiators (AIEN)
Vandana Gangaram Panday – Staatsolie Maatschappij Suriname N.V
David Parkinson – Wood Mackenzie
Juliana Quintela – Petrobras
Jaime A. Ramirez Navarro – SCyR México S.C.
Renata Resplandes – EMPRESA BRASILEIRA DE ADMINISTRAÇÃO DE PETRÓLEO E GAS NATURAL S.A. – PRÉ-SAL PETRÓLEO S.A - PPSA
Luciana Ricart – Curtis, Mallet-Prevost, Colt & Mosle LLP
Peter Roberts – CROSS KEYS ENERGY LIMITED
Giovanni Tagliani – UCL
Patricia Tiller – Bracewell LLP
Kimmo Viertola – OECD - OCDE
James D. Bamford – Ankura
Marta Bayarte – Ankura Joint Venture and Partnership Practice
India Furse – Norton Rose Fulbright
Charez Golvala – Norton Rose Fulbright
Latifat Folashade Yusuff – NNPC Limited
Claudia Hooker Archbold – Ecopetrol
Leonardo Sempertegui – OPEC
Harry Sullivan – Kosmos Energy
Steven P. Otillar – White & Case LLP
Claudia Zacour – Petrobras
George Bibineishvili – Georgian Oil and Gas Corporation
Ricardo Silva – Miranda & Associados
Ryan Hartfield – PTTEP
Oscar Johnson – CNOOC International
Holly Pattenden – Equinor
Jon Story – Wood Mackenzie
Edward Wiarda – EBN B.V.
Amir Shafaie – Natural Resource Governance Institute
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